CESIF

May 2023 Analysis - Federalism

by CESIF Nepal
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The Nagarik Unmukti Party was influential in Sudurpaschim Province's establishment of the government and selection of the speaker, but has been sidelined in the balance of power in Far West due to the loss of the same decisive position created following the coalition of December 10. The Unified Socialist Party is requesting that it hold at least one ministry in a province other than Koshi as part of its participation in the cabinet. The Unified Socialist Party was not included in the appointments of ministers made by the Congress and Maoists. The Maoists have indicated that they will form a new government in the place of Chief Minister Saroj Kumar Yadav, saying that Janta Samajwadi Party (JSP) is trying to run its own power. The JSP has withdrawn from Koshi and two Maoist ministers have resigned from their positions in the cabinet.

Timeline of Major Events 

Date

Events

May 19

Congress has started expressing doubts after seeing no sign of immediate exit of the Maoists from the CPN UML-led provincial government

May 21

Sudurpaschim Chief Minister Kamal Bahadur Shah expanded his Cabinet for the second time

May 21

 The Nagarik Unmukti Party has been sidelined in the balance of power in the Far West due to the loss of the same decisive position created following the coalition of December 10                                         

May 21

Concern within the Unified Socialist Party because of division in Ministries

May 25

Maoists out of alliance in Madhesh

June 4

The JSP has withdrawn from Koshi and from the support to the chief minister.

June 6

Two Maoists ministers also resigned from their positions in the Koshi province cabinet.

 

Nagarik Unmukti Party at the Edge of Power

The Nagarik Unmukti Party was extremely influential in Sudurpaschim Province's establishment of the government and selection of the speaker. The future of the government also largely depended on the same party. The Nagarik Unmukti Party has been sidelined in the balance of power in Far West due to the loss of the same decisive position created following the coalition of December 10. Since the requested number of ministers was not granted, Nagarik Unmukti Party was not included in the cabinet expansion. During the alliance with UML that was created on December 10, the Civil Liberties Party was effective in the Far West. There were 22 members of the coalition, including 11 Maoists, 10 UMLs, and 1 RPP. The Far West Chief Minister expanded the capacity of his cabinet by adding representatives from the Maoist and Congress parties. The Chief Minister of the Congress party made an effort to win the Nagarik Unmukti Party's trust. He even paid a visit to their leader's jail and committed to striving for their release. The Nagarik Unmukti Party's impact on the Chief Minister has decreased as Congress and Maoists have gained a majority in the state assembly without their assistance.

Therefore, Nagarik Unmukti Party no longer holds the key position it once did in Sudurpaschim Province's power dynamics. The Chief Minister may no longer be reliant on the backing of the Nagarik Unmukti Party given the shifting alignments and the Congress-Maoist majority. Since their requests for cabinet positions were not satisfied, this has caused dissatisfaction within the party.
 

Unified Socialist Part Neglected

The division of ministries between the federal government of Nepal has caused concern within the Unified Socialist Party. The party's leaders vented their resentment, saying that the government was trying to isolate them and ignore them. The Unified Socialist Party is requesting that it hold at least one ministry in a province other than Koshi as part of its participation in the cabinet. The establishment of a Unified Socialist government in the provinces has been hampered by disagreements over the distribution of ministries and power battles within the alliance. The Congress and Maoists have been unwilling to share power with the Unified Socialists in accordance with the agreed-upon terms, regardless of the instructions of the alliance.

The Unified Socialists were not included in the appointments of ministers made in various provinces by the Congress and Maoists. The Congress and Maoists have been reluctant to give in to the party's demands for cabinet positions.
With many parties struggling for their interests and groups within parties seeking representation, the distribution of ministries and power-sharing agreements can be difficult. The complaints of the Unified Socialist Party speak to a larger problem of power distribution and fulfilling the various interests of coalition partners. The Unified Socialist Party's electoral performance has been comparatively weak. This poor performance could be a factor in their lack of coalition bargaining power and their inability to obtain desired ministerial positions.

The Maoist party's internal division also adds to the complexity of the matter. There are internal conflicts among the Maoists that may affect how they make decisions and their capacity to keep up with coalition partners' requests.
 

Maoists ‘out of the alliance’ in Madhesh state

The Madhesh is now experiencing a political crisis. The Maoists have indicated that they will form a new government in the place of Chief Minister Saroj Kumar Yadav, saying that Janta Samajwadi Party (JSP) is trying to run its own power.  The Maoists decided to leave the government after Chief Minister Saroj Kumar Yadav reconstituted the cabinet comprising the Congress and United Socialists.  Dissatisfied with the cabinet reshuffle, Janmat Party and Loktantrik Samajwadi Party (LOSPA) held a joint meeting in Janakpur. Since the alliance with the Maoists ended in December, the CPN UML, which was formerly a member of it, is no longer in the government. The Maoists' actions have been criticized for being unclear, with ministers not resigning to leave the government despite rumors of their withdrawal from the government. Additionally, there have been suspicions of dishonesty and corruption inside the government, including reports that provincial finance ministers have accepted commissions.

The current state shows a worrying shift away from development priorities. The political landscape appears to be consumed by power conflicts, cabinet shuffles, and differences within the ruling coalition rather than the pressing challenges of growth and progress. This change in focus has prevented advancement and development where it is most required. The focus and resources have been redirected to alliance-building, political scheming, and resolving internal issues. As a result, vital programs and initiatives for development may be postponed or disregarded, having an adverse effect on the local population. The situation is made harder by the Maoists', Janmat Party's, and LOSPA's withdrawal of support. It not only interferes with how the government operates, but it also fosters unpredictability and instability.
 

Maoists out of the alliance in Koshi

In Nepal’s central and other provinces, the coalition between the two major parties, CPN UML and Maoists, has dissolved. However, power cooperation between the parties persisted in the Koshi province. As the Maoists didn’t appear to be leaving the CPN UML- led provincial government anytime soon, the Congress party had expressed doubts. According to the central alliance, the Congress parliamentary party asked that the Maoists step down from the government to make way for a new one. The Maoists and Janta Samajwadi Party (JSP) in Koshi were unwilling to leave the government despite the change in the central alliance, which had hampered the attempts to create a new coalition government. Based on parliamentary math, the Maoists argued that exiting the government would not ensure that their alliance would establish a new government. They argued that even with the Speaker’s note the current government’s ruling coalition would not have a majority to create a new one. The disagreement was partly a result of the different perspectives inside the Maoist party.

The JSP has withdrawn from Koshi and from the support to the chief minister. Two Maoists ministers also resigned from their positions in the Koshi province cabinet. The central coalition's leading force, the Nepali Congress, has stated its intention to establish a new government in Koshi in response to these modifications.

Overall the situation in Koshi highlights the difficulties involved in building a stable and effective government as well as coalition politics. The parties' different objectives and conflicting political interests have led to the withdrawal of two parties.

Careful talks and coordination between the coalition partners would be necessary for the establishment of an entirely new government led by the Nepali Congress or any other party. It is essential for the parties concerned to communicate with one another and come to an agreement in order to ensure political stability and efficient government in the province of Koshi, where the political landscape appears to be unclear.

 

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CESIF Nepal

CESIF Nepal