November 2025 Analysis

CESIF Nepal

International Relations and Foreign Affairs

News Brief

Nepal’s central bank has released a new 100 note featuring a revised national map that includes the territories of Kalapani, Lipulekh, and Limpiyadhura — regions that India claims as its own. The note also carries new security features and design elements. In response, India’s foreign ministry condemned the move, calling the updated map an “artificial enlargement” of territory and insisting that unilateral actions will not change the ground reality.

Nepal and Australia celebrated 65 years of diplomatic relations in 2025. Prime Minister Sushila Karki attended a reception hosted by the Australian Embassy in Kathmandu. At the event, she praised Australia’s friendship, development assistance, and support for Nepal’s democratic and inclusive transformation. A commemorative book titled “65 Years Together” was launched to highlight the deep people-to-people ties between the two countries.

The 19th edition of Exercise SURYA KIRAN, a joint military drill between the Indian Army and the Nepali Army, began on 25 November 2025 in Pithoragarh, Uttarakhand. The exercise will run until 8 December 2025. Around 334 soldiers from each army, the Indian side primarily from the Assam Regiment and the Nepali side from the Devi Datta Regiment, are participating. This year’s drills emphasize jungle and mountain warfare, counter-terrorism, disaster relief, and the use of advanced technologies like drones, unmanned aerial systems, and AI-enabled support tools.

The 16th EU–Nepal Joint Commission concluded in Brussels with both sides noting strong progress in their partnership. The meeting reviewed cooperation in areas such as development, trade, climate action, connectivity, and multilateral engagement. The EU welcomed Nepal’s fiscal discipline, governance reforms, and improvements in public service delivery. Nepal highlighted its progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals and requested continued EU support in climate resilience, disaster-risk reduction, and investment promotion. Both sides agreed to deepen collaboration in shared priority sectors.

News Analysis

Over the past month, in late November 2025, Nepal’s interim government faced challenges that quickly shifted from domestic issues to diplomatic ones. Nepal issued new banknotes featuring a revised national map that includes Kalapani, Lipulekh, and Limpiyadhura. This action reignited an old dispute with India and led to strong reactions across the border. This situation has reminded policymakers how state actions can lead to immediate bilateral effects.

At the same time, internal conflicts have limited the interim cabinet’s ability to maneuver. The government’s decision to recall a group of ambassadors received a Supreme Court stay earlier in November, followed by legal challenges, including contempt petitions. This indicates judicial resistance and sparks a public debate over executive power during the transition. These legal hurdles have delayed immediate staff changes and complicated the interim team’s effort to present a clear external message.

However, the month’s events also highlighted the fragility of controversies alongside the deeper, practical connections between Kathmandu and New Delhi. Despite public disagreements, formal cooperation in areas like energy, connectivity, and cross-border trade remains crucial. New Delhi has not closed the door to cooperation, and practical collaboration on economic issues continues even amid rising tensions. For Nepal, protecting and prioritizing these functional links, which provide electricity, market access, and cross-border livelihoods, is vital to prevent short-term disputes from escalating into long-term economic problems.

Domestically, the interim government’s main task this month has been to reassure citizens that governance and service delivery will continue despite political signals. The prime minister and election officials have been urging parties and institutions to focus on an orderly campaign and trustworthy electoral preparations. This serves as a reminder that domestic legitimacy is crucial for diplomatic credibility abroad.

The key takeaway from this month is clear: the interim government must prioritize clear communication, respect institutional checks, and connect foreign policy decisions to the interests of citizens.

Domestic Politics and Federalism

News Brief

Eight parties, including the CPN (Maoist Center) and the CPN (Unified Socialist), signed an 18-point agreement on unification. They have decided on using a five-pointed star as the election symbol.

The Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is going through turmoil. While the party had originally endorsed the Gen-Z movement, it has now distanced itself from it. There have also been high-profile resignations within the party, including that of Sumana Shrestha, the former Education Minister and joint General Secretary of the RSP. The party is yet to decide on its general convention as well. During a central committee meeting, the party decided to relieve all seven provincial in-charges of their duties. Now, Central Committee Members will be assigned to the role. The Bibesksheel Sajha Party (BSP), led by Samiksha Baskota, has decided to merge with the RSP. The decision to unify with RSP came during the party’s central committee meeting.

The Nepali Congress (NC)’s ongoing internal divisions and rivalries have pushed the organization into disarray. NC General Secretary Gagan Kumar Thapa has proposed a party convention in December-January, before the elections. However, it has been reported that Party President Deuba wants to delay the convention and retain control over candidate selection. With that said, the party has formally committed to contesting the elections, concluding that the ongoing political crisis can only be resolved through the ballot.

While CPN-UML’s Chairman KP Sharma Oli had earlier announced that the party would not be participating in the upcoming elections and party leaders had filed a writ at the Supreme Court seeking reinstatement of the House of Representatives (HoR), the party has now registered for the House of Representatives election.

The party is undergoing an intense internal conflict. Most of the senior leaders believe that Chairman Oli should step down. Senior Vice-Chairman of the CPN-UML, Ishwar Pokharel, has announced his candidacy for the post of Chairman.

A new party, called the Pragatisheet Loktantrik Party, has been announced and registered with the Election Commission. The party is being led by former Maoist Centre Deputy General Janardhan Sharma, Durga Sob of Nepal Samajwadi Party (Naya Shakti), and former RSP Party Chief Santosh Pariyar.

Following clashes between Gen Z youths and UML supporters, the District Administration Office, Bara, imposed a curfew in the Simara airport area. The clashes began after Gen Z youths demonstrated when they learned that UML leaders, Shankhar Pokhrel and Mahesh Basnet, were arriving in Simara for a programme in Parwanipur. Following this incident, the youth hurled water balloons and sprayed paint on Mahesh Basnet’s vehicle in Biratnagar. In addition to this, youth also gathered near Gen Z Road in Dhangadhi, staging a protest ahead of Basnet’s arrival in the city.

Durga Prasai’s campaign, Rastra, Rastriyata, Dharma, Sanskriti Bachau Abhiyan, had planned to hold protests on Sunday, the 22nd of November. Following talks with the government in Baluwatar, the two sides agreed to withdraw the protest and hold another round of dialogue at the earliest.

Suman Raj Aryal, Secretary at the Ministry of Defense, has been appointed as the Chief Secretary of the government. He has stated that his foremost goal is to maintain national pride and dignity, while promoting citizen satisfaction.

Madhesh Province Head Sumitra Subedi Bhandari appointed a new Chief Minister, Saroj Kumar Yadav. She left Janakpur at 4 am, citing health reasons, and appointed Yadav as Chief Minister in Panas Cottage in Bardibas. Following widespread criticism for overstepping and going against the constitutional provision, the government has now removed Bhandari and recommended Surendra Labh as the new head of the province.

PM Karki’s Chief Personal Secretary, Adarsha Kumar Shrestha, appointed his wife to a position within the PM’s secretariat. However, the PM’s press coordinator has defended the appointment, saying that the PM needed someone trustworthy who could work with her closely. It has also come to light that he had facilitated appointments for other relatives. Following this revelation, the Nepal Gen Z Front, led by Rakshya Bam, has demanded the immediate dismissal of Adarsha Shrestha. While PM Karki has reduced the number of staff in her secretariat, Adarsha Shrestha has been retained, while his wife has been removed. PM Karki has also removed representatives from the Gen Z movement, including Pradip Gyawali and Akriti Ghimire.

News Analysis

Understanding the Youth Frustration Better

The youth clashes in Simara, Biratnagar, and Dhangadhi with UML supporters and leaders have made one thing clear: the situation is still very tense. At the same time, these incidents have exposed how shaky the foundation of the upcoming elections really is. An election season that was supposed to restore stability is now becoming more uncertain, with the political class and the interim government both struggling to understand the scale of youth discontent.

For the interim government, this moment is especially delicate. The Election Security Action Plan to deploy the army, police, and the armed police, and the decision to mobilize 3.25 Lakhs security personnel for election duty, demonstrate how seriously the state views the current environment. However, there is a need to pair security preparations with political responsiveness. This means creating space for youth voices, improving transparency in appointments, and addressing grievances that fuelled these conforntations.

There has been growing backlash against the Karki-led interim government, with recent controversies around ministerial selection and appointments to the PM’s secretariat and other advisory positions adding to public frustration. These incidents have reinforced the belief among many young people that even an interim administration is slipping into old patterns. Moving forward, the interim government and the political parties need to show that they are committed to a real spirit of change and understand the aspirations and concerns of the youth, ensuring that their voices are heard and represented in the processes that will shape Nepal’s immediate political future.

Political Economy and Development

News Brief

Nepal’s post Gen-Z uprising economic trajectory in November 2025 displayed a cautious stabilization layer atop persistent structural weakness.

The NRB released its quarterly report on the current macroeconomic and financial situation of Nepal. The inflation remained at 1.47 percent year-on-year, down from 4.82 percent a year earlier. Strong remittance inflows, which surged by 35.4 percent to NPR 553.31 billion, have driven a substantial current account surplus of NPR 237.59 billion. The balance of payments remained firmly positive at NPR 264.03 billion, and foreign reserves rose to NPR 2.98 trillion, providing coverage for 16.4 months of goods and services imports. The report signalled stability amid structural weaknesses: reserves strengthened, inflation fell, but credit growth— rising only 1.5% in Q1, significantly slower than the 2.5 percent seen in the same period last year—remained weak.

The World Bank released its Nepal Development Update in November , highlighting recent economic trends and the outlook. It reports that Nepal’s economy grew by 4.6 percent in FY25, mainly due to stronger hydropower, manufacturing, and construction activities. But growth is expected to slow to around 2 percent in FY26 because of the recent GEN-Z protest and weaker investment. The World Bank expects the economy to recover to about 4.7 percent as reconstruction picks up and conditions stabilize in FY27.

The banking sector continues to struggle with reduced profits, high non-performing loans and excess liquidity. Commercial banks saw their profits fall by nearly 19 percent, while non-performing loans rose to around 4.86 percent, signaling a deterioration in credit quality and deceleration in economic activity. Domestic credit demand remained weak; as a result, NPR 1.1 trillion in liquidity sat idle within banks.

The Gen-Z protest of September 2025 eroded investor confidence as many business enterprises were vandalized or set on fire. The government attempted to restore the confidence by assuring investors that investments damaged during the Gen-Z protest would be reimbursed and measures would be taken to ensure such incidents would not recur. However, the effectiveness of these policy interventions has yet to be seen.

Despite these headwinds, several pockets of stability emerged. Tourism began to recover as the trekking season advanced. FDI commitments increased in sectors like agriculture and forest-based industries, tourism, manufacturing, construction and infrastructure, information technology and energy. However, experts warn that commitments do not always translate into actual inflow.

News Analysis

Stabilization without Momentum: Nepal’s Confidence Recession

November revealed a deeply uneven post-Gen-Z protest recovery: commercial bank profits fell nearly by 19 percent, and non performing loans rose to 4.86 percent, reflecting borrower distress and growing operational caution across banks. The NPR 1.1 trillion in liquidity remained idle in the banking system, suggesting the weak demand for new loans from firms and individuals. This indicates that the confidence is falling, making Nepal’s business environment vulnerable and discouraging new investment.

The NEPSE index has stagnated around 2,560 points, and turnover has repeatedly fallen below NPR 5 billion. This stagnation suggests a collapse in investor confidence, even though macroeconomic fundamentals such as ample liquidity and low interest rate—deposit rates at 2.75 percent and lending rates around 7.5 percent—should support investment, investors remain unmotivated to commit capital.

Real estate transactions have fallen consistently over the first four months of FY 2025/26, with monthly revenue falling from NPR 3.289 billion in Shrawan to NPR 2.745 billion in Kartik. Despite recent government efforts, such as amendments to the Land Use Regulation, revenue components like service tax, registration fees, and capital gain tax have not improved. This indicates a steady market slowdown, and the policy changes have not stimulated demand.

The 34.4 percent rise in remittances has strengthened both household finances and the external sector. Families now have more money to manage daily needs and repay loans. The surge in inflows has also improved Nepal’s balance of payments. Consequently, foreign exchange reserves have climbed to NPR 2.98 trillion. These reserves can now cover 16.4 months of imports, giving Nepal a strong safety cushion.

Overall, Nepal’s economy shows signs of stability, but real momentum is still missing. Confidence across investors, businesses and households remains weak, slowing activity in the stock market, real estate and bank lending. Strong remittances and record reserves have not translated into confidence; economic actors remain unwilling to invest or assume risk. Soaring remittances and swelling foreign reserve exchange reserves have reinforced Nepal’s classic Dutch-Disease Syndrome: consumption and imports rise, foreign- exchange reserves swell, but productive-sector investment stagnates.

Environment and Climate Change

News Brief

Nepal’s agricultural sector was severely affected by the uneven monsoon pattern, hit by drought during plantation and unexpected rainfall during harvest season with paddy, a daily household staple bearing the majority of the brunt. This has amounted to heavy losses making it an increasingly risky venture. Along with that, shortages in fertilizers and rising production costs have made the sector vulnerable for the farmers.

Building on this, an article titled ‘Unlocking Climate Resilience’ highlights the intersection between Nepal’s economy and climate. Nepal’s major economic sectors agriculture, hydropower, and tourism are highly prone to increasing climate risks such as floods, droughts, and erratic monsoons. It emphasizes that real-time climate data and early-warning systems can improve preparedness and guide climate-smart decisions. The article argues that integrating climate risk into banking, insurance, and local development planning can help Nepal shift from reactive crisis response toward long-term climate resilience.

Under the Emissions Reductions Payment Agreement (ERPA), Nepal has received USD 9.4 million from the World Bank's Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) as a result of successfully reducing around 1.88 million tons of carbon dioxide under the REDD+ Emission Reductions Program in the Terai Arc Landscape.

The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) in collaboration with Power Shift Nepal and other youth-led organizations hosted a Local Conference of Youth (LCOY) Nepal 2025 on November 1 advocating for children as the sheer drivers of climate action and the leaders of tomorrow.

Nepal participated in COP30 in Belem, Brazil from 10th to 21st November 2025, with its delegation led by Dr. Madan Prasad Pariyar, Minister for Agriculture and Livestock Development. Nepal’s core agenda centered on climate justice, emphasizing that although it contributes minimally to global emissions, it faces severe climate impacts, especially in its fragile mountain ecosystems. The delegation strongly promoted the mountain-climate agenda, highlighting glacier melt, GLOFs, and the need for mountain-specific adaptation and loss & damage recognition. Nepal also pushed for enhanced climate finance, including operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund, grant-based adaptation support, and presented its updated commitments such as NDC 3.0 and the 2045 net-zero target.

Along with that Nepal, Bhutan, and Bangladesh presented a joint COP30 statement calling the 1.5 °C target a matter of survival, urging updated NDCs by 2035, enhanced grant-based adaptation finance, tripling adaptation funding, and a roadmap to mobilize USD 1.3 trillion for climate action.

News Analysis

An assessment of Nepal’s engagement at the COP30

Nepal’s recent engagement at COP30 reflects noteworthy strengths, starting with a clear and consistent framing of its vulnerability and moral argument. Nepal strongly places the “least-contributor, most-affected” narrative, highlighting melting glaciers, mountain ecosystem risks, water and food security challenges, agricultural stress, and increasing disasters. By advancing the mountain agenda, Nepal argues that climate change for mountain nations is not just about emissions, but majorly about ecosystem survival, water security, and disaster risk. This narrative broadens global concepts of climate justice and grounds them in real, quantifiable vulnerabilities. Nepal also hosted a side event titled “Sagarmatha to Belem: Advancing Climate Action” which further demonstrates its proactive effort to institutionalize mountain concerns at a global level.

Nepal’s COP30 presence also reflects strategic diplomacy and alliance-building. Nepal coordinated closely with other highly vulnerable nations: Bhutan and Bangladesh through joint statements and shared advocacy on mountain and low-emission vulnerabilities. Despite having a comparatively small delegation, Nepal engaged in multiple negotiation tracks, including the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), climate finance, the Loss and Damage Fund, Article 6 (carbon markets), mitigation, technology transfer, and capacity building. One concrete diplomatic achievement was ensuring the retention of “mountain” references in the draft GGA/Global Stocktake text, confirming global acknowledgment of mountain-specific concerns. Additionally, Nepal along with Bhutan and Kyrgyzstan also pushed for an annual conference on mountains, reflecting Nepal’s proactive commitment towards the agenda. Domestically, Nepal also demonstrates an ambitious vision by presenting NDC 3.0 with a net-zero target of 2045, alongside commitments to forest conservation, renewable energy development, and youth-focused capacity building. These actions signal that Nepal is not merely asking for resources but presenting a credible vision for sustainable transformation.

A major pillar of Nepal’s agenda is climate finance, particularly the operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund, simplified access to funds, grant-based financing instead of loans, and tripling adaptation finance by 2030. These demands reflect both Nepal’s real risks and a broader push among vulnerable countries for equitable climate financing structures. However, Nepal’s strategy is not without challenges. Nepal’s small delegation limits leverage in a negotiation space that is dominated by major emitters, wealthy countries, and fossil-fuel-aligned interests. The institutionalization of the mountain agenda may face resistance from countries prioritizing economic interests over ecological vulnerabilities. Moreover, Nepal’s success in meeting its ambitious targets relies heavily on technical, financial, and institutional capacities at a domestic level. Implementing renewable energy expansion, early-warning systems, climate-resilient infrastructure, and improved forest governance requires resources that are not guaranteed.

In a gist, Nepal’s participation in COP30 demonstrates how small, climate-vulnerable mountain countries can meaningfully shape global climate discourse through moral argumentation, credible domestic commitments, and strategic alliances. If Nepal succeeds in embedding mountain-specific concerns into global climate governance frameworks, it could emerge as a leading voice for mountain regions, a turning point in Nepal’s diplomatic achievements. However, the long-term impact depends on sustained national implementation, stronger institutions, and consistent diplomatic pressure to ensure that global commitments are honored. For Nepal, the stakes are deeply tangible including glacier melt, rising hazards, insecure water and food systems, and stressed livelihoods. COP30 offers visibility and opportunity, but what this interestingly depends on is Nepal’s ability to translate these negotiations into resilience in practice.

Gender, Social Inclusion & Human Rights

News Brief

The United Nations in Nepal, alongside Hon’ble Minister for Communication and Information Technology Mr. Jagdish Kharel, launched the 16 Days of Activism Against Gender-Based Violence on November 25, marking the International Day for the Elimination of Violence Against Women. This year’s campaign theme is “UNiTE to End Digital Violence Against All Women and Girls.”

Amnesty International Nepal held its 34th Annual General Meeting in Jeetpursimara, Bara, with 150 participants approving the 2026 human rights action plan, statutory reports, and organizational amendments. The event included a public action urging global intervention in Sudan and discussions on Nepal’s human rights challenges. Speakers emphasized issues such as caste discrimination, weak accountability, and the impact of Gen Z protests on social and political change.

Education International (EI) affiliates in Nepal gathered in Kathmandu from 14–16 November 2025 for a three-day Gender Justice Training, designed to strengthen union capacity to promote gender equality and end gender-based discrimination in the education sector.

Cities Alliance, with UNOPS and UN-Habitat under the Cities 4 Women programme, is supporting Nepalese cities to create public spaces that are safe, accessible, and inclusive for all, including women, children, seniors, people with disabilities, and sexual and gender minorities. Eight pilot projects have been launched across municipalities including Dhangadhi, Hetauda, Birendranagar, Chandragiri, Lamki Chuha, Sunwal, Tansen, and Tilottama. Over 500 community members, around 60 percent of them women, have participated in design workshops, safety audits, and urban walks to co-create parks, market squares, and other public areas.

News Analysis

Tackling Digital Violence Against Women and Girls

With the rapid proliferation of digital technologies, women and girls have become increasingly vulnerable to new forms of violence. Online spaces have, in many ways, become extensions of the harsh patriarchal realities women face offline, only amplified. According to UN Women, one in three women is affected by violence, making this not only a global human rights crisis but also an urgent women’s rights emergency.

Nepal’s reality is no different. The violence women and girls face online has escalated sharply in contemporary times. Recent trends show a rapid surge in cyber-harassment cases. In FY 2018/19, there were 194 reports of cyber harassment against women. By FY 2024/25, that number had risen to nearly 8,000 cybercrime cases involving women. Similarly, as of mid-November of FY 2025/26, approximately 2,900 complaints related specifically to violence against women have already been registered. While alarming, these numbers only represent reported cases; the true scale is likely much larger, as such incidents often remain hidden or go unreported.

Despite the rising incidence of cyber violence against women and girls, efforts to curb it remain stagnant. The Government of Nepal continues to rely almost entirely on the Electronic Transactions Act, 2008 with it being the only legal instrument currently used to address online harassment. Authorities often invoke a provision of the Act that penalizes the publication of ‘illegal material’. However, the provision itself is vague, loosely defining what constitutes illegal content, making it highly prone to misinterpretation. As a result, the outdated Act is insufficient for addressing the wide and evolving spectrum of modern cyber violence.

This surge in cyber harassment, coupled with inadequate legal safeguards, stress the urgent need for a comprehensive cyber law and regulatory framework that ensures the protection of women and girls online. Such a framework must not only address the multiplicity of cybercrimes but also be gender-sensitive, ensuring

strong enforcement and accessible reporting mechanisms. Additionally, social media regulations must be strengthened, and digital literacy and awareness prioritized, in order to create safer online spaces for women, and for all citizens.

author

CESIF Nepal

Centre for Social Innovation and Foreign Policy