International Relations and Foreign Affairs

News Brief

Nepal’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs held a general briefing on January 29, 2026, led by Foreign Secretary Amrit Bahadur Rai for diplomatic missions, UN agencies, and international organisations in Kathmandu ahead of the March 5 House of Representatives election. Rai outlined key aspects of the electoral preparations, emphasising the government’s and Election Commission’s commitment to a free, fair, and credible process. Diplomatic representatives were reminded to strictly observe the Election Code of Conduct and to refrain from activities that could be perceived as influencing the electoral outcome.

The Government of Nepal stated on 7 January that it is closely monitoring the evolving situation in the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. Kathmandu urged all parties involved to exercise maximum restraint to prevent further escalation of tensions. The statement emphasized Nepal’s commitment to the principles of state sovereignty, territorial integrity, and political independence as outlined in the UN Charter. It also underscored that disputes should be resolved through peaceful dialogue, diplomacy, and mutual understanding.

Nepal and Bangladesh agreed to accelerate negotiations on a long-pending bilateral preferential trade agreement (PTA) during the eighth commerce secretary-level meeting in Dhaka. It aims to finalize the PTA draft, rules of origin, and product lists within the next three months. The Nepali delegation was led by Secretary Ram Prasad Ghimire, while Bangladesh was represented by Commerce Secretary Mahbubur Rahman. Despite progress on the negotiation timeline, differences remain over tariff and para-tariff hurdles that currently limit Nepali products’ competitiveness in the Bangladeshi market.

Four international organizations have been authorised by Nepal’s Election Commission to observe the March 5 House of Representatives elections, marking notable global engagement in the electoral process. The Carter Center, the Asian Network for Free Elections (ANFREL), the International Republican Institute (IRI), and the Multidisciplinary Institute of Training and Learning will monitor voting and electoral procedures across the country. The Carter Center and ANFREL have previous experience observing multiple elections in Nepal, while this will be IRI’s first direct election observation in the country.

The Government of Nepal is preparing for its parliamentary elections scheduled for 5 March 2026, and both India and China have stepped in with support offers. India is providing in-kind assistance such as vehicles and riot-control equipment, continuing a long history of election-related aid. China, after initially declining requests for material support, has offered cash assistance instead to help cover election-related expenses.

News Analysis

An Assessment of Nepal’s Election Security Framework and Its Capacity to Deliver Credible March 2026 Polls

As Nepal approaches the March 5, 2026, House of Representatives election, the government has put in place an extensive, multi-layered security strategy designed to mitigate both traditional and emerging threats. Central to this plan is the deployment of tens of thousands of security personnel, notably around 80,000 Nepali Army troops under the Integrated Security Plan 2025, operating alongside the Nepal Police, Armed Police Force, and specially recruited election police. These institutions are crucial to secure critical infrastructure, ballot printing sites, and ultimately, polling stations themselves. These forces are expected to serve in three rings of security, from strategic sites to local polling locations, to ensure operational continuity across Nepal’s complex geography.

Beyond boots on the ground, authorities have classified polling centers into normal, sensitive, and highly sensitive categories, triggering differentiated security postures based on assessed risk levels, including areas with a history of political clashes. In urban areas like Kathmandu, joint patrols involving the Army, Police, and APF are already underway, with surprise inspections and intelligence-led threat analysis to preempt disruption.

Nevertheless, security concerns persist. Critics argue that the state has not yet created an environment where voters feel secure enough to participate freely, a reflection of public anxiety about political volatility and the lingering aftereffects of the September 2025 Gen Z protests and broader unrest. Additionally, the digital realm poses new risks: misinformation, disinformation, and algorithm-driven political advertising have been flagged by the Election Commission as an integrity threat that could undermine public trust.

On the positive side, international observation is part of Nepal’s strategy to bolster confidence and transparency. The Election Commission has accredited 40 national and international organizations, including four international observer groups, and is actively facilitating observer orientation and accreditation to ensure external monitoring of electoral conduct. Such international attention not only reinforces procedural credibility but also places Nepal’s political process under global scrutiny.

While Nepal’s security architecture for the March election combines traditional force deployment with evolving institutional responses, ongoing political tensions, digital vulnerabilities, and public perceptions of safety remain significant challenges that both domestic stakeholders and the international community are watching closely.

Domestic Politics and Federalism

News Brief

A Special convention of the Nepali Congress (NC), convened under the leadership of the Thapa-Sharma group, elected Gagan Thapa as the party president. The convention was called in accordance with the party statute after 54 percent of the party’s general convention representatives signed in support. Prior to this, a central committee meeting of the Sher Bahadur Deuba faction had taken disciplinary action against General Secretaries Gagan Thapa and Bishwaprakash Sharma and Joint Secretary Farmullah Mansur, following the submission of an 8-point proposal to the establishment faction. After the formal split, the question of legitimacy between the two factions was referred to the Election Commission, which ultimately recognized Gagan Thapa as the party president. Subsequently, the party declared Gagan Thapa as its prime ministerial candidate.

Kulman Ghising left the Rashtriya Swatantrata Party (RSP) just 12 days after joining a broad alliance with Rabi Lamichhane and Balen. The short-lived, but highly anticipated alliance among the “new force” is said to have fallen apart after Ghising asked for institutional and ideological changes within the party, for members of his team to be given key positions, including senior vice-chair and general secretary, and his stipulation that more than two dozen of his camp be appointed members of the party’s central committee.

While there was widespread speculation over which constituency Balen would contest in the House of Representatives election, he ultimately filed for nomination from Jhapa-5. Balen stepped down as Kathmandu’s Mayor on January 18 and began his electoral campaign with a speech in Maithli from Janakpur. Jhapa-5, however, Jhapa-5 has been Oli’s stronghold since 1999, and the only time Oli lost the constituency was in 2008.

In recent months, there have been growing calls for a public debate between the prime ministerial candidates. KP Sharma Oli had expressed support for such a debate and posted a status on social media. Balen, however, rejected the idea, commenting that he would not share a stage with someone allegedly responsible for the deaths of 76 children. In response to his comments, a complaint has been filed at the Election Commission against Balen for allegedly making hateful, misleading, and defamatory statements in violation of the election code of conduct.

Four ministers from PM Sushila Karki’s cabinet have resigned from their posts to enter the electoral race. Former Education, Science, and Technology Minister Mahabir Pun has filed candidacy from Myagdi; Former Minister for Energy, Water Resources, and Irrigation Kulman Ghising from Kathmandu-3; Former Minister for Communication and Information Technology Jagadish Kharel from Lalitpur-2; and Former Minister for Youth and Sports Bablu Gupta from Siraha-1. The government has officially designated Home Minister Om Prakash Aryal as its new spokesperson, following Kharel’s resignation, and Journalist Ram Rawal has been appointed PM Karki’s press advisor.

The National Assembly elections have concluded, with the Election Commission reporting a voter turnout of 95.68 percent. The NC-UML coalition swept the upper house polls, with the NC securing nine seats, the CPN- UML eight, and the Loktantrik Samajwadi Party-Nepal (LSP-N) one.

Around 1,88,000 personnel from the Nepali Army, Nepal Police, APF, and the National Investigation Department will be employed nationwide for election security. The election police appointments have been set for January 29, followed by 10 days of basic training, with field deployment starting from February 8.

News Analysis

Campaigns without Clear Agendas

Political parties have formally entered the campaign phase, with candidates already on the ground, going door- to-door and holding constituency-level meetings across the country. However, it is worth noting that most political parties have yet to bring out their election manifestos. With the exception of the Janata Samajwadi Party (JSP), other political parties have not articulated their policy priorities and commitments.

The JSP has unveiled a 27-point election manifesto, outlining its framework on key national issues. By contrast, other major parties are still in the process of preparing their manifestos. The Nepali Congress leadership has indicated that preliminary drafting work is ongoing. The CPN-UML has stated that its manifesto is under development, and the Nepal Communist Party tells a similar story. All have said it will take at least a week. The Rastriya Swatantra Party has said it will not release its manifesto immediately but intends to make it public before February 16. As a result of these delays, campaign messages at present are driven more by rhetoric, personal appeal, slogans, and the ‘new versus old’ debate than by clear articulation of agendas. Notably, prime ministerial candidates have also not released their formal commitment letters.

This scenario raises important questions about how the aspirations of young voters and the broader electorate will be addressed. The Gen-Z movement urgently called for better governance, accountability, political stability, and the restoration of state credibility. These are substantial governance challenges, yet they remain largely absent from the current campaign discourse.

In a democratic election, manifestos serve as benchmarks against which citizens, civil society, and the media can hold political parties accountable. They help voters understand what parties stand for, what they aim to achieve, and how they plan to deliver on those promises. As the campaign progresses, it will be crucial for Nepal’s political parties to move beyond rhetoric and symbolism and present their election manifestos, detailing their policies, programs, and commitments. Only then will it enable informed choice among citizens and strengthen democratic accountability.

Political Economy and Development

News Brief

Nepal’s economy recorded several notable developments in late January, with strong remittance inflows providing support amid political uncertainty ahead of the March 5 elections.

Remittances rose sharply by 35.6 percent, reaching NRS 870 billion in the first five months of the current fiscal year. This surge has pushed the country’s foreign exchange reserves to a historic high of $22 billion, which is sufficient to cover more than 18 months of imports. The increase has strengthened Nepal’s external position and eased pressure on the balance of payments.

Despite this improvement, international institutions remain cautious. The World Bank, in its Global Economic Prospects report released on January 20, projected Nepal’s economic growth at 4.6 percent but described the outlook as uncertain due to ongoing political instability. Inflation, however, remains subdued at around 1.63 percent, well below Nepal Rastra Bank’s ceiling, offering temporary relief to households facing rising living costs.

As the country prepares for the March 5 polls, the Election Code of Conduct has come into force, effectively freezing new government contracts and capital transfers. In a move aimed at improving transparency in campaign financing, Nepal Rastra Bank has directed all election candidates to open separate, dedicated bank accounts for election-related spending.

Commodity prices continued to draw attention this month. Gold and silver reached record levels on January 29, with gold priced at NRS 339,300 per tola and silver at NRS 7,505 per tola, reflecting both global trends and domestic demand. At the same time, edible oil prices increased by NRS 40–50 per litre, adding pressure on household budgets.

There was some positive news for the agriculture sector. Rising milk prices in India have reduced cross- border smuggling, allowing Nepali dairy farmers to benefit from higher domestic and cross border demand for the first time in several months.

On the infrastructure front, the Kohalpur–Surkhet 132 kV transmission line has achieved 100 percent completion and is expected to connect Karnali Province to the national power grid by early February. The project is expected to improve electricity access in the region and support local economic activity.

News Analysis

Record High Metal prices: A shift on Nepal’s Consumption pattern

January 2026 was marked by record-high precious metal prices in Nepal, with gold reaching Rs 339,300 per tola and silver Rs 7,505 per tola as of 29th January. Rising geopolitical tensions among major global powers have shifted investment behaviour toward safe-haven assets such as gold and silver. As Nepal depends entirely on imports for these metals, global uncertainty has had an immediate and visible impact on the domestic consumer market.

Demand for gold remains strong, partly because the wedding season is approaching and gold is not only an investment but also a cultural requirement in such ceremonies. However, record prices have changed consumer behaviour. Many households are holding on to their existing jewellery instead of selling it, while new buyers are increasingly dependent on freshly imported gold. This shift is reflected in trade data, with gold imports rising sharply in recent months.Nepal imported 1,104 kilograms of gold worth Rs 19.67 billion in the first six months of the current fiscal year up to mid-January 2026, compared with 726 kg in the same period last year.  At the same time, silver has emerged as a new investment option. With gold becoming less affordable, consumers are turning to silver for their investment. Rising global prices and strong local demand have pushed silver imports up significantly. Nepal imported 59,617 kilograms of silver worth Rs 14.87 billion in the first six months of the current fiscal year — a 362.32 % increase compared with 23,569 kg during the same period last year. Despite a sharp increase in imports of silver, Nepal's domestic market is currently experiencing a shortage of the precious metal.This shows that households are actively seeking alternative stores of value as gold moves further out of reach.

Overall, Nepal is no longer insulated from geopolitics and geoeconomics. As an import-based economy, it remains highly exposed to global market movements in precious metals that are deeply embedded in local culture and savings practices. The current surge in gold and silver prices highlights how international tensions can quickly translate into changes in domestic consumption, investment choices, and import dependence.

Environment and Climate Change

News Brief

The Kathmandu Valley experienced a severe deterioration in air quality throughout January 2026, culminating in a hazardous peak on January 29 when the Air Quality Index (AQI) in Bhaktapur hit 365. This surge, driven by thermal inversion and a lack of wind, frequently placed Kathmandu among the top three most polluted cities globally alongside Cairo and New Delhi. While the government officially implemented Euro 6 emission standards for new vehicles, a mid-month joint operation by the Kathmandu Metropolitan City and traffic authorities exposed systemic enforcement failures. Random spot checks revealed that a significant number of vehicles failed emission tests despite possessing valid "Green Stickers," highlighting deep-rooted corruption in the certification process.

Simultaneously, the southern plains and western hills grappled with extreme meteorological volatility. A prolonged "Winter Drought" characterized the first three weeks of the month, with the absence of winter rainfall placing wheat and mustard crops in Karnali and Sudurpaschim provinces at risk of severe yield reductions. Relief arrived late in the month with snowfall in Mustang and rainfall in Surkhet, though agricultural experts warn the moisture may have come too late to fully reverse crop stunting. Conversely, the Madhesh Province suffered a lethal "Sheet Lahar" (cold wave), which claimed 49 lives in the last month— mostly among the elderly and impoverished—due to hypothermia and fire-related accidents.

On the energy front, the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) faced a critical setback in its dry-season management strategy. Facing a declining domestic electricity production, the authority struggled with competitive bidding for imports. While officials maintained a narrative of "no load-shedding," industrial corridors in Birgunj and Biratnagar reported frequent power struggles. The country continues to rely on daily imports of approximately 654 MW from India to offset the plummeting domestic generation caused by freezing river flows.

News Analysis

The Convergence of Poly-Crises: Governance Gaps in a Toxic Winter

The events of January 2026 illustrate a disturbing convergence of environmental fragility and governance paralysis, effectively puncturing the narrative of Nepal's "energy surplus" and "green recovery." The situation in the Kathmandu Valley demonstrates the "Euro 6 Paradox," where high-level policy ambition is rendered impotent by low-level institutional rot. The revelation that valid Green Stickers are widely circulated among gross polluters transforms the air quality crisis from a meteorological misfortune into a failure of state accountability. Unlike previous years where hazardous AQI levels might have triggered emergency measures, the current administrative response suggests a normalization of "pollution fatigue," where economic continuity is prioritized over public health despite the toxic atmosphere causing measurable welfare losses.

The energy sector's struggles serve as a critical geopolitical and economic reality check. The failure to secure fixed-price contracts exposes the extreme vulnerability of Nepal’s Run-of-River (RoR) dominated grid, which leaves the nation at the mercy of India’s volatile spot markets during the dry season. The inability to attract Indian suppliers with capped rates indicates a tightening regional energy market where Nepal can no longer bank on easy, cheap imports to plug its winter deficits. This operational fragility threatens to derail post-pandemic industrial recovery, as the unannounced tripping of high-voltage lines in industrial corridors erodes investor confidence more effectively than declared load-shedding schedules.

Furthermore, the humanitarian toll in the Terai underscores a persistent equity gap in Nepal’s climate resilience. While the capital complains of smog, the marginalized communities of Madhesh are dying from the cold, and subsistence farmers in the Far West face food insecurity due to the erratic behavior of the Jet Stream. The state’s reactive measures—often limited to distributing firewood—paradoxically exacerbate the respiratory crisis while failing to address the root issue of housing insulation. To prevent a total collapse of winter crop yields and ensure energy stability, the government must immediately recalibrate its cross-border energy procurement strategy and operationalize the Loss and Damage mechanisms discussed post-COP30 to support the most vulnerable districts.

Gender, Social Inclusion and Human Rights

News Brief

The month commenced with nationwide celebrations on the occasion of Prithvi Jayanti, Topi Diwas, and the English New Year 2026. The 304th Prithvi Jayanti and National Unity Day were marked with ceremonies across Nepal, with leaders and citizens paying homage to King Prithvi Narayan Shah’s role in unifying the country. January 1 saw Nepalis observe both the international New Year and National Dress/Topi Day, with many donning traditional attire and sharing photos of celebration and cultural identity.

Maghe Sakranti was observed on the 15th of January as people across the country celebrated the winter solstice festival with traditional foods and rituals that mark seasonal change and harvest completion. Sonam Lhosar was celebrated by the Tamang and Hyolmo communities as their lunar New Year, with cultural events, prayers, and traditional gatherings held throughout the country on January 19, marking the start of the Year of the Horse.

Martyrs’ Week began with a memorial service at Machali, Teku, where officials and citizens offered floral tributes to martyr Shukraraj Shastri, underscoring the need to pass on the legacy of sacrifice and civic consciousness to younger generations.

Birgunj protests erupted in early January after the vandalism of a mosque in a nearby district, prompting Muslim groups to take to the streets in southern Nepal’s border city. The Parsa District Administration imposed a curfew, deployed security forces, and banned public gatherings as tensions between demonstrators and police continued, though major clashes were limited.

The Samavesi Samajwadi Party, led by Numa Limbu, has entered the national political arena with both FPTP and proportional representation candidates, signifying a shift toward greater political inclusion of sexual and gender minorities. The party has fielded multiple candidates across systems including Limbu herself in Morang aiming to bring lived minority experiences into Parliament.

News Analysis

Census vs voter list where women fall behind men

As Nepal moves closer to the March 5 general election, new figures reveal a troubling gap between census data and the voter registration list. Although women slightly outnumber men in the overall population, they remain underrepresented on the voter roll, pointing to persistent structural barriers such as difficulties in obtaining citizenship documents, migration after marriage, and limited access to voter registration services despite constitutional commitments to gender inclusion.

This discrepancy weakens the principle of representative democracy, as electoral outcomes risk reflecting a skewed electorate rather than the country’s actual demographic makeup. Addressing this gap is crucial not only for gender equity but also for ensuring the legitimacy and credibility of the electoral process itself.

While the 2021 census shows women constitute a slight majority of Nepal’s population (51.13 %), the voter list for the March 5 House of Representatives election reverses that balance: women make up only 48.88 % of registered voters. This gap of over 423,000 fewer female voters than male voters highlights persistent barriers to voter registration for women, including limited access to documentation, technology, information, and civic outreach.

The disparity in voter registration mirrors issues in political candidate representation. According to candidate data, there are about 3,484 total candidates in the direct (FPTP) contest, of which only around 395 are women making roughly 11.34 % of the total. This figure is far below both the proportion of women in the population and the constitutional or Election Commission recommendation for 33 % female participation in first-past-the-post candidacy. This implies a deeper reality of women not claiming political spaces and highlights how representation in Nepali politics is dominated by patriarchy.

The concurrence of a female population majority, lower voter registration, and low female candidate representation suggests structural challenges persist well beyond registration drives. These include gendered differences in access to citizenship documentation and political networks, socio-economic constraints that make campaigning more difficult for women, and party nomination practices that sideline women in winnable seats. In the context of Nepal’s competitive and polarized national elections, these disparities risk creating a democratic process that underrepresents the majority of the population.