International Relations and Foreign Affairs

News Brief

The Government of Nepal has urged Nepali nationals in Israel and Iran to remain indoors amid rising tensions in the Middle East. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the security situation is being closely monitored. Nepalis are asked to follow local security instructions and stay vigilant. The government also advised postponing travel plans to those countries. Contact with the Nepali Embassy and community is recommended for updates.

The United States has highlighted Nepal’s upcoming elections as important for maintaining regional balance. A senior U.S. official expressed hope that the elections will be peaceful and fair. Washington said it is ready to work with whichever government is elected. U.S. lawmakers pointed to Nepal’s strategic location between India and China. They also cautioned against any single power dominating the region.

The commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command recently visited Nepal. During the visit, he held meetings with senior officials from the Nepal Army and the government. Discussions focused on enhancing security cooperation, peacekeeping operations, and disaster preparedness. Officials emphasized the need for continued dialogue and information-sharing on security challenges.

News Analysis

Proactive Measures Needed for the Safety of Nepali Workers Abroad

Recent developments in West Asia have once again highlighted the vulnerability of Nepali migrant workers and the urgent need for a more proactive state response. Around 1.7 million Nepali nationals live and work across this region, making their safety a significant foreign policy concern for Kathmandu.The Government of Nepal has issued travel advisories urging Nepalis in Israel and Iran to remain indoors and follow local security instructions amid escalating tensions. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs Nepal has also stated that it is closely monitoring the situation and coordinating with Nepali embassies in the region. In addition, authorities temporarily halted the issuance of new labour permits to certain Gulf destinations as a precautionary measure. These steps indicate awareness, but the scale of Nepal’s labour migration demands a deeper and more institutionalized response.

The Gulf region, including countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, hosts millions of Nepali workers whose remittances sustain the national economy. Similarly, Nepalis working in Israel and Iran face heightened risks when regional conflicts escalate. Advisory notices alone are insufficient in volatile environments where communication breakdowns, border closures, or sudden military escalation can occur. The government must therefore move beyond reactive statements and establish permanent crisis-response mechanisms, including 24-hour hotlines, mandatory migrant registration systems, evacuation protocols, and coordinated intelligence assessment units.

Protecting migrant workers should not be treated as a temporary diplomatic concern but as a core pillar of foreign policy and national security. These are not abstract geopolitical calculations; they are the lives and livelihoods of Nepali citizens who contribute significantly to Nepal’s economy. A proactive, well-resourced, and anticipatory approach would demonstrate that the state recognizes its responsibility to safeguard its people abroad. In moments of regional instability, timely preparedness can mean the difference between orderly evacuation and humanitarian crisis.

Domestic Politics and Federalism

News Brief

Nepal’s political parties have unveiled their election manifestos, setting out their priorities and policy commitments. The Nepali Communist Party released its commitment paper, presenting an extensive list of time-bound commitments covering political reform, economic growth, infrastructure expansion, social protection, and environmental sustainability. The document places strong emphasis on governance restructuring and state capacity.

The CPN-UML’s manifesto reiterates its national vision of ‘Prosperous Nepal, Happy Nepali.’ Unveiled under the main slogan ‘UML Will Build It,’ the document outlines immediate actions to be taken if the party forms the government, and presents 25 foundational pillars for long-term development as its core promises. The party has highlighted targeted programs for women, youth, students, laborers, and marginalized communities, while underscoring economic growth, infrastructure expansion, and administrative efficiency.

The Nepali Congress unveiled its election manifesto, the ‘Pratigya Patra’, in Janakpur, a shift from its usual launch in Kathmandu. The document advances a 10-point agenda centered on governance reforms, economic revitalization, and the protection of citizens’ dignity. The party had organized an open question-and-answer session, titled “Our Commitment - Your Questions,” aimed at publicly engaging voters on its policy proposals.

The Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) presented a 22-page manifesto outlining 100 policy commitments,  signalling an agenda centred on governance reform, institutional accountability, and productivity-driven economic growth. The document stresses transparency, anti-corruption measures, and structural reforms. Balen has also presented his election manifesto for Jhapa-5, encompassing agendas ranging from lawmaking in the federal parliament to radical transformation in local education and health sectors.

The RSP has been hit by a wave of resignations from several provincial-level leaders, including Mamta Sharma, Dinesh Humagain, Pranaya Shumsher Rana, and Ashok Kumar Thapa, citing financial irregularities, lack of transparency and accountability, and undemocratic candidate processes. The party leadership has denied these allegations.

The factional dispute within the Nepali Congress has now reached the Supreme Court. Former party president Sher Bahadur Deuba and acting president Purna Bahadur Khadka have filed a writ petition at the Supreme Court seeking official recognition of the Nepali Congress under their leadership.

Formal campaigning for the House of Representatives Elections began on February 16. The Election Commission launched a multi-channel voter education programme designed to enhance public awareness and participation. The programme is set to be implemented through two approaches. First, is an interactive voter education programme where a volunteer will visit households and provide voter education.  Second, voter education will be expanded through mass media and social media platforms.

Home Minister Om Prakash Aryal has stated that all security arrangements have been completed for the elections. All four security agencies, the Nepal Army, Nepal Police, Armed Police Force Nepal, and National Investigation Department, have been mobilised under the coordination of the Nepal Army in accordance with the Integrated Security Plan, 2082. The ‘election police’ recruited specifically for election purposes will also be deployed to safeguard polling stations and other sensitive locations.

Political tensions escalated in Tulsipur, Dang, following an incident in which members of the RSP allegedly burnt the CPN-UML party flag. UML officials have strongly condemned the act, issuing a press release labelling the incident as a criminal act against the state, the people, democracy, and the constitution. The party has demanded legal action against those involved. The following day, UML supporters burnt effigies of RSP president Rabi Lamichhane and senior leader Balendra Shah and vandalised the RSP office in Dang.

 Security concerns have also intensified in Rautahat after a communal clash prompted the District Administration Office to impose a curfew in the district headquarters, Gaur. In response to growing tensions and their potential implications for election security, the Central Security Committee convened a meeting under the chairmanship of Om Prakash Aryal. The committee reviewed the overall situation, including recent tensions between the CPN-UML and the RSP in Dang, a curfew in Rautahat, and clashes in various parts of the country.

News Analysis

How Political Parties are Courting the Youth

In the aftermath of the Gen Z movement, the youth have emerged as the most coveted demographic on the ballot. With this new wave of political consciousness reshaping discourse on unemployment, economic insecurity, corruption, and governance failures, parties are tailoring their manifestos to address the youth’s aspirations. That said, the parties’ commitments and political strategies warrant closer attention.

The CPN-UML’s youth-focused pledges lean heavily toward tangible benefits and quick-impact proposals. Commitments such as 10 GB free monthly mobile data, issuing dollar cards worth up to $10,000 for young people and entrepreneurs, offering interest-free student loans of up to Rs. 2 million, and paid internships have been designed to target voters aged 18 to 28. In addition, the party aims to make 1 million youth self-employed over the next 5 years by providing training in AI, content creation, digital marketing, and app development. These proposals are attractive, particularly in a demographic grappling with rising living costs and limited opportunities. However, certain measures risk being perceived as populist inducements rather than components of a coherent long-term strategy.

The RSP places a stronger emphasis on systemic reform and anti-corruption measures. Its manifesto pledges to probe the assets of public office holders since 1990 with legal provisions to confiscate illegally acquired property, investigate major corruption scandals, and establish merit-based bureaucracy. It aims to digitize public services and deliver government services via a ‘single digital portal.’ This approach seeks to improve public service delivery and address youth frustration with inefficient bureaucracy. The party has also pledged support for startups and skills-based job creation. However, the legal complexity of some proposals raises legitimate questions about institutional capacity and implementation realities.

The Nepali Congress has placed political transformation at the forefront of its agenda, under the slogan “transformed Congress, transformed nation.” Its key commitments include establishing a transparent and effective governance system and ensuring meaningful youth participation in politics. The party has pledged a new practice of publishing a ‘Report Card’ every month after forming the government. It has emphasised skill development, safe foreign employment opportunities, support for returning migrant workers to pursue entrepreneurship, and the introduction of the ‘Nepal Fellowship Program.’It has pledged to provide collateral-free loans of up to Rs 5 million to youth and women entrepreneurs and proposed an investment model comprising a 25 percent grant, 50 percent subsidised loan, and 25 percent equity support for youth-led businesses. It has also proposed a high-level probe into the assets of public office holders since 1990. However, the party still faces the challenge of convincing younger voters that these reform-oriented promises represent a credible break from past patterns.

The Nepali Communist Party, a merger of ten communist factions, has proposed an ambitious agenda, covering political reform, economic growth, and social justice. The party has proposed a returnee entrepreneurship program to leverage the knowledge, skills, experience, and capital of Nepalis working abroad, through which it aims to attract at least 100,000 returnee entrepreneurs. It has set a goal to introduce 30 per cent of ‘new and capable’ personnel into government service within the next five years, a commitment to investigating the assets of all people’s representatives after 1990, forming an empowered, independent commission with a one-year mandate to investigate corruption and assets of past public officials, and a high-level Lokpal body and merit-based appointments free from political influence. The overarching challenge for the party, however, lies in proving that this new merger is a genuine ideological intent rather than a tactical alliance to survive the growing wave of anti-establishment sentiment.

Ultimately, the manifestos are competing to capture the mood and expectations of young voters. Across party lines, the striking convergence around asset probes, governance reform, and accountability pledges indicates that political parties have recognised corruption as a defining concern for the younger electorate. The decisive question, however, is not the ambition of promises but the feasibility and credibility of delivery. For Nepal’s young electorate, fatigued by recurring cycles of pledges and unmet expectations, parties must move beyond populist rhetoric and demonstrate realistic implementation roadmaps.

Political Economy and Development

News Brief

Nepal’s mid-year fiscal review reflects persistent weaknesses in public spending. The FY 2025/26 budget has been cut by 14.4 percent due to low capital expenditure which stands at just 14.98 percent of the annual allocation. Although funds remain available for government agencies that can spend, the core problem lies in weak implementation capacity rather than budget size.

The external sector continues to show structural imbalance. In the first seven months of FY 2025/26, imports reached NRS 11.234 billion compared to exports of NRS 1.681 billion, pushing total trade to NRS 12.916 billion, up 15.8 percent year-on-year. The widening trade deficit highlights Nepal’s continued dependence on imports and limited export diversification.

On a positive side, Nepal and India are exploring an interbank mechanism to enable large-scale digital transfers of Indian rupees. This could reduce reliance on physical cash movement, ease currency management, and address issues related to informal cash flows. Its broader impact will depend on alignment with trade and monetary coordination.

Meanwhile, multinational companies report declining profits amid political instability, weak demand, and regulatory delays. External pressures, including India’s GST changes and rising youth migration, have further reduced domestic consumption. Currency depreciation and higher input costs have also squeezed margins.

Ahead of the March elections, parties have outlined differing economic visions. The Nepali Congress emphasizes jobs and rural development, the CPN-UML targets rapid infrastructure-led expansion, and the Rastriya Swatantra Party prioritizes digital governance and anti-corruption reforms. The effectiveness of these agendas will ultimately depend on institutional capacity and policy execution.

News Analysis

Populism or Policy? Pre-Election Economic Pledges

Ahead of the March 2026 elections, Nepal’s major political parties have placed big economic promises at the center of their manifestos. The CPN-UML says it will grow the current Rs 6.1 trillion economy to NRS 10 trillion within five years, while the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) is aiming for a $100 billion economy within five to seven years. The Nepali Congress (NC) has set an even larger target of NRS 11.5 trillion and promises to create 1.5 million jobs to reduce youth migration. However, the question is whether these are realistic plans or simply campaign rhetoric meant to attract voters.

A closer look shows that many pledges rely heavily on giveaways without clear funding plans. The UML has promised 10GB of free monthly internet for youths, a Rs 20,000 nutrition allowance for new mothers, and loan waivers of up to Rs 25,000 for poor households. The NC has proposed collateral-free loans of up to Rs 5 million for young and women entrepreneurs. Such promises overlook Nepal’s fiscal reality: the government is facing a deficit of over Rs 130 billion, public debt stands at around 47 percent of GDP, and development spending in the past seven months is only about 15 percent of the annual target. Reaching the ambitious growth goals would require around Rs 2.2 trillion in annual investment, almost three times the government’s current spending capacity of roughly Rs 800 billion.

The gap between promises and reality is also clear in the health sector. While the NC wants to expand health insurance coverage to Rs 1 million and the RSP promises full insurance coverage, the existing health insurance program is already struggling. The government owes billions of rupees to hospitals, and many facilities have reduced or suspended services because payments have not been made. This shows the risks of announcing large welfare schemes without securing proper funding.

Many of these targets are mathematically difficult to achieve. To reach goals like a $3,000 per capita income, Nepal would need sustained double-digit growth of 13–14 percent, yet the economy grew by only 4.6 percent last fiscal year. Without clear funding sources, institutional reforms, and realistic planning, these economic visions may remain campaign promises rather than achievable policy outcomes.

Environment and Climate Change

News Brief

February 2026 brought a hydrological paradox to Nepal. While a supraglacial lake outburst in Tibet sent catastrophic floods down the Bhotekoshi River on February 5, the southern plains faced the fourth consecutive rainless winter. The Rasuwagadhi flood destroyed the Friendship Bridge, killed 8 to 9 people, left 19 unaccounted for, and damaged four hydroelectric projects. Limited upstream data sharing left Betrawati communities with minutes to evacuate.

The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology confirmed rainfall totals registered below normal levels for the fourth consecutive year. In Bhojpur district, winter wheat and mustard fields dried by mid-February. Agricultural experts noted soil organic matter sits below 2% in many regions, with moisture stress continuing to impact farmland. Meanwhile, Kathmandu Valley recorded an Air Quality Index of 191 on February 17, ranking third globally. Approximately 1,200 brick kilns firing low-grade coal contributed heavily to the smog, alongside vehicle emissions and early wildfire smoke from the mid-hills.

Policy responses included the launch of Living Sagarmatha, a mountain resilience strategy, and the finalization of NDC 3.0, which outlines a $115 billion implementation plan through 2035. The government also signed a Memorandum of Understanding with India for transboundary conservation and declared Nepal's first fish sanctuary in the Lower Karnali.

News Analysis

The Hydrological Schizophrenia 

February 2026 delivered the defining image of Nepal's climate predicament, catastrophic flooding in the high Himalayas occurring simultaneously with acute drought in the southern plains. This goes beyond extreme weather variability. It signals the operational collapse of Nepal's water security paradigm, which optimizes for monsoon excess while struggling to provide buffers for simultaneous drought and cryogenic discharge.

The Rasuwagadhi GLOF originated from a supraglacial formation in Tibet, a body of water outside Kathmandu’s surveillance coverage until it emptied. The event illustrates the Transboundary Monitoring Gap, where hazard assessment follows political borders while hydrology ignores them. The destruction of the Friendship Bridge and the loss of the spring tourism season in Langtang reveal an economy built on glacial aesthetics yet vulnerable to glacial behavior. While Nepal signed a conservation agreement with India on February 25 to manage southern biodiversity corridors, its northern exposure stays data-dark, leaving communities vulnerable to silent disasters that arrive lacking meteorological precursors. 

Resilience claims face scrutiny when Betrawati residents learn about GLOFs from the sound of approaching debris instead of early warning systems. The $115 billion NDC 3.0 implementation plan depends on international climate finance for 96% of its funding, transforming the strategy into a conditional appeal instead of a guaranteed roadmap. Until Nepal secures real-time data sharing protocols with China, or deploys autonomous downstream monitoring capable of providing hours of evacuation warning, mountain resilience remains aspirational. 

The Structural Drought and Agricultural Tipping Points 

Four consecutive rainless winters transform drought from an emergency into a chronic agricultural restructuring event. Soil organic matter in Nepal's agricultural zones sits below 2%, giving farms reduced sponge capacity and making subsequent droughts more damaging even at identical rainfall deficits. February's wildfire red alert compounds this degradation. Fires incinerate the microbiome that builds soil structure, creating a fertility spiral where farmers facing drought-stunted yields resort to chemical fertilizers, further reducing water retention capacity. This soil bankruptcy feedback loop threatens long-term food security, particularly in the Madhesh, where groundwater tables sink under relentless extraction. In Bhojpur district, winter wheat and mustard crops desiccated by mid-February, with agricultural officials warning that the moisture arrived too late to reverse crop stunting. 

The Seasonal Emission Stack 

Kathmandu's air quality narrative shifted from January's vehicle focus to February's brick kiln reality. The AQI spike on February 17 coincided with the ignition of approximately 1,200 kilns utilizing low-grade coal. Wind-driven dispersion on February 20 provided temporary relief, yet the Department of Environment emphasized this improvement depended entirely on weather patterns instead of emission controls. Nepal possesses emission standards on paper while the regulatory infrastructure to enforce fuel quality and kiln technology stays limited during the critical pre-monsoon burning season. 

Policy Ambitions and Protection Gaps 

The juxtaposition of the India-Nepal agreement with the Tibetan-origin GLOF crystallizes the strategic miscalculation, bilateral cooperation focuses southward while the immediate cryospheric threat vectors flow from the north. The Living Sagarmatha strategy promises mountain resilience through ecosystem protection and sustainable tourism, yet the Rasuwagadhi disaster reveals communities possess only minutes of warning instead of hours. The draft NDC 3.0 outlines an impressive governance architecture with provincial climate committees and transparency frameworks, but the $115 billion price tag depends almost entirely on external finance. This creates a planning paradox where vulnerability reduction requires immediate capital deployment for hard infrastructure, including transboundary sensor networks and groundwater recharge systems, while available funding flows toward policy documentation instead of protective hardware. Until Kathmandu secures real-time data partnerships with upstream neighbors or installs autonomous monitoring capable of providing hours of evacuation warning, mountain resilience remains a branding exercise instead of a protective reality.

Gender, Social Inclusion and Human Rights

News Brief

The Sherpa community observed Gyalpo Lhosar, their New Year festival, with cultural programs and traditional rituals across various parts of Nepal. The festival marks the beginning of the new year in the Sherpa and Mahayana Buddhist tradition.

Devotees across Nepal celebrated Maha Shivaratri by visiting Shiva temples, performing rituals, and offering prayers. Large numbers of pilgrims gather at the Pashupatinath Temple, where special arrangements have been made for worship.

Authorities imposed a curfew in Birgunj after tensions erupted between two groups over a parking dispute in the Shreepur area. Movement, gatherings, and rallies have been banned within designated areas to maintain security.

The District Administration Office continued a prohibitory order in Gaur Municipality following clashes between two communities in Savgadha village. Restrictions remain in place across key areas of the municipality to prevent further unrest.

World Social Justice Day was marked globally on February 20 to promote social justice, labor rights, equal opportunities, and decent work. The day has been observed annually since 2009 following a UN resolution.

In the month of February, the International Day of Women and Girls in Science was observed worldwide to highlight the importance of women’s participation in science and technology and to reduce gender gaps in STEM fields. Similarly, the global community observed the International Day of Zero Tolerance for Female Genital Mutilation to raise awareness and strengthen efforts to end the harmful practice affecting millions of girls and women worldwide.

News Analysis

Safeguarding Rights and Credibility in Nepal’s 2026 Elections

The National Human Rights Commission has called for Nepal’s March 5, 2026 House of Representatives elections to be conducted in a manner that fully respects human rights and democratic norms. It has warned political parties, candidates, and election stakeholders to strictly follow the election code of conduct, particularly regarding voter privacy, misuse of social media, and campaign practices that could intimidate or influence voters. The commission also expressed concern over early violations of the code of conduct during the campaign period, emphasizing the need for monitoring to ensure a free and fair electoral environment.

In the context of Nepal’s political climate following the Gen-Z-led protests, the call reflects growing institutional awareness that the credibility of the electoral process is under heightened public scrutiny. The youth protests highlighted widespread frustration with political elites, corruption, and weak accountability mechanisms, bringing new attention to how democratic processes function in practice. Ensuring rights-respecting elections therefore becomes crucial not only for the legitimacy of the vote itself but also for restoring public confidence among younger and politically mobilized citizens who increasingly demand transparency, fairness, and meaningful political participation.