International Relations and Foreign Affairs

News Brief

Bipin Joshi’s body, a Nepali citizen held hostage by Hamas since October 2023, was brought back to Nepal following the recent Gaza peace plan. Joshi, who was among the foreign hostages captured during the Hamas-Israel conflict, was confirmed to have died while in captivity. Government officials and family members received his body with solemn honors at the Tribhuvan International Airport. 

The Nepalese government has ordered the recall of 11 ambassadors serving abroad, including those posted to China, the United States, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, Japan, Israel, Malaysia, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Spain. The recalled envoys have been instructed to return by 6 November. Among the 11, only the ambassador to Japan was a career diplomat; the rest were political appointees. Notably, the government did not recall several ambassadors who were also politically appointed during the previous administration, such as those to India, Australia, Denmark, South Korea, South Africa, and Sri Lanka. 

On 29 October 2025, Nepal and India signed an agreement to construct two 400 kV double-circuit cross-border transmission lines: one linking Inaruwa (Nepal) to New Purnea (India), and the other Lamki (Dodhara, Nepal) to Bareilly (India). The deal is structured as a joint-venture between the partners, aiming for completion by 2030, and forms part of a broader push to deepen Indo-Nepal energy collaboration.

Finance Minister Rameshwor Prasad Khanal attended the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank Group in Washington DC. During his visit, he held a series of high-level talks, including with IMF Deputy Managing Director Bo Li and U.S. Deputy Trade Representative Brian Switzer. The discussions focused on Nepal’s financial reforms, trade, and taxation policies. Khanal also met with Abdul Rahman Al Marsad, Chairman of the Saudi Fund for Development, to discuss future cooperation on infrastructure and development projects in Nepal. 

On October 18, 2025, the Nepali Army said there is no alternative to elections and urged political parties to hold them on time. The Army held a press conference to address criticism over its actions during last month’s Gen-Z protests. Officials said the Army’s priority was to protect lives and property, and its fire unit helped control fires at Singha Durbar and the Supreme Court. They said the Army acted only to restore peace and denied taking any political side. The Army also said the Home Ministry has formed a security committee to ensure law and order for the upcoming elections.

News Analysis

Foreign Support and Security Morale Key to Credible Elections

External help, including technical, logistical, and observational support, will be crucial for the credibility of Nepal’s upcoming elections. International observers and accreditation frameworks boost transparency and public trust. Meanwhile, UN and multilateral electoral programs provide operational support like training, voter education, and logistics that national authorities often require to scale quickly.

The recent recall of Nepali ambassadors from several major capitals has drawn significant attention and reflects a pattern of political appointments and sudden diplomatic changes. This trend may weaken bilateral relations and send negative signals about stability, but it does not have to hinder election administration. The Election Commission, established civil-society networks, and international partners are ready to provide capacity, equipment, and impartial observation upon formal request. Moreover, the Supreme Court’s recent order for the government to justify the recalls highlights the legal and political sensitivity of such actions and creates pressure for clear procedures.

Within the country, improving the morale and professionalism of security agencies is essential for ensuring free and fair voting. Clear orders that respect rights, prompt but accountable responses to incidents, and joint planning among police, military, and electoral officials will help reduce intimidation risks and reassure voters. Public statements from the army about their commitment to elections can be effective if they include transparency measures and independent oversight.

Immediate priorities are clear: formally request and publicize international technical and observer support; maintain diplomatic contacts at the mission level despite recalls; and publish binding engagement rules for security forces with independent monitoring. Some examples of practical assistance include secure ballot-chain logistics, biometric roll support, rapid deployment of counting observers, and public information campaigns aimed at migrants and youth. All these measures can increase turnout and minimize procedural disputes. With timely coordination, Nepal can handle these challenges and conduct credible elections on schedule.

Domestic Politics and Federalism

News Brief

Prime Minister Sushila Karki held the first round of talks with 10 political parties and 2 observers. This marked the first formal dialogue between the government and political parties. The government has faced mounting criticism for its delayed initiative to engage with parties and create a conducive environment for the upcoming elections. During the meeting, several party leaders sharply criticised Home Minister Om Prakash Aryal for his recent remarks and conduct. 

The government also invited Durga Prasai for talks following his renewed calls for nationwide protests for the restoration of Nepal as a Hindu state. Meanwhile, provincial governments have voiced dissatisfaction over the federal government’s decision to freeze their budgets, stating that it was done without prior consultation or formal communication. 

In the wake of the Gen-Z movement, debates surrounding federalism and constitutional amendments have resurfaced. In response, Madhesh-based parties have initiated efforts to unify and safeguard the key gains of the 2007 Madhesh movement. 

PM Karki has expanded her Cabinet for the third time. Amid controversy, two new ministers were sworn in on Sunday- Dr. Sudha Sharma Gautam as the Minister of Health and Population and Bablu Gupta as the Minister for Youth and Sports. 

Nepali Congress President Sher Bahadur Deuba announced that he will step down as the party president during the party’s central working committee meeting. He handed over the responsibility of acting president to party vice president Purna Bahadur Khada. However, there have been growing rifts within the party. 

KP Sharma Oli announced that CPN (UML) will boycott the March elections. Arguing that the House of Representatives (HoR) was dissolved undemocratically, the party’s central committee has insisted that only the re-establishment of the HoR can steer the country back onto the democratic path. With that said, the party has been pursuing a dual agenda, preparing for elections while also advocating for the reinstatement of the Parliament. However, internal rifts have emerged, with party leaders openly criticizing Oli’s stance and calling for a leadership transition.

The Election Commission is currently reviewing applications from five new political parties. The new parties include the Shram Sanskriti Party, led by the Mayor of Dharan Sub-Metropolitan City, Harka Sampang, the Nepal Nagarik Party, led by Advocate Surendra Bhandari, the Gatisheel Loktantrik Party, led by Dinesh Raj Prasai, the Nepal Liberal Party, led by Gopilal Neupane, and the Rastriya Gen Z Party, led by Hira Prasad Soti. Additionally, a group of Gen Z youths, led by Miraj Dhungana, has announced the formation of a new party. However, Dhungana has stated that the party will not contest the elections until the demand for a directly elected prime minister is met. 

News Analysis

Bringing Political Parties on Board: A Prerequisite for Credible Elections

The government has asserted its commitment to holding the upcoming elections in a free, fair, and peaceful manner. However, that promise will ring hollow unless all political parties, from mainstream to emerging ones, feel genuinely included in the process and are assured of peace and security. Over the past month, the government has faced growing criticism from political parties for failing to create a conducive environment for the elections. Mounting pressures from Gen-Z protesters’ demands, missing police weapons, and declining police morale have further deepened the distrust. Unless the government addresses these concerns in a timely and efficient manner, it could threaten to derail the electoral process altogether.

While political parties have been highly discredited during the past few years, they are indispensable agencies to link governance with the public space in a democracy. They are the essential link between state institutions and the public. Therefore, to hold credible elections, all political parties must be brought on board, with meaningful dialogue and engagement. The current government, however, has been rather slow in engaging with political parties,  bringing them into confidence, and building consensus around election preparedness. 

Among the mainstream parties, the CPN-UML has taken the hardest stance, declaring a boycott of the upcoming polls and demanding the restoration of the HoR. The Nepali Congress (NC), meanwhile, has supported the elections,  but insists that the environment is not yet conducive. Given that parties across the board are calling for stronger security guarantees, the government needs to step up. The Nepal Police has yet to recover over 1,000 weapons, and with more than 4,000 inmates out of prison, the state’s ability to maintain law and order appears severely compromised. Now, while the government must work to assure the parties of safety and credibility, political parties themselves have much to reflect on. The Gen-Z movement has given them a chance to introspect, reform their internal culture, and reconnect with the public, especially the youth, whose trust they have steadily lost. 

Additionally, it is important to acknowledge that parties like the NC, CPN-UML, and the CPN (Maoist Centre) have strong organisational structures, which inherently give them an advantage in electoral politics. The general public is frustrated with the same leaders and their game of musical chairs, but the newer parties lack a strong ideological ground, organisational strength and root. Therefore, while it is important to make space for emerging parties, it is equally crucial to push for genuine reform and change within the traditional parties, ensuring that, whether new or old, they carry the spirit of change and deliver on the people’s demands. 

Political Economy and Development

News Brief

IMF Backs Post-Crisis Management: In a crucial vote of confidence, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed its review of the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) on October 1, approving a new disbursement of approximately US$43.05 million. The endorsement signals international backing for the interim government's handling of the economy in the direct aftermath of the September uprising.

Central Bank Cuts Policy Rate to 4.5%: Seeking to shore up a shaken private sector, the Nepal Rastra Bank (NRB) cut its key policy rate to 4.5% as part of its monetary policy for the 2025/26 fiscal year. The move is designed to ease credit conditions and stimulate investment to counteract the economic paralysis caused by last month's turmoil.

Foreign Exchange Reserves Surge to Record Rs 2.88 Trillion: Bolstered by steady remittance inflows and a sharp drop in post-crisis import demand, Nepal’s foreign exchange reserves hit an all-time high of Rs 2.88 trillion, providing a critical 16-month import buffer. This gives the government significant breathing room as it navigates the reconstruction phase.

World Bank Slashes Growth Forecast to 2.1%: In a sobering assessment, the World Bank sharply downgraded Nepal's GDP growth forecast to just 2.1%. Citing the deep political uncertainty and institutional disruption following the September crisis, the report directly contradicts the NRB’s more optimistic 4-5% projection, highlighting a deep divide on the country's actual growth prospects.

Contradictory Signals from the Real Economy: Despite the grim forecast, key indicators showed resilience. Private sector credit growth remained steady at 7.3%, suggesting underlying business activity did not collapse. Furthermore, preliminary data showed a rebound in tourist arrivals and continued FDI commitments of Rs 35.13 billion in long-term hydropower projects, as strategic investors look past the immediate crisis.

News Analysis

Graduating into a Crisis? Why September's Upheaval Demands a Delay in Nepal’s 2026 LDC Exit

As Nepal approaches its scheduled November 2026 graduation from Least Developed Country (LDC) status, a dangerous paradox has been laid bare by the September uprising. While the nation may meet the technical benchmarks on paper, the crisis exposed a fragile economic and political reality that makes an on-time exit a profound policy error. The violence on the streets was not a random event; it was a symptom of the very structural weaknesses that make graduation untenable.

The case for deferral, reinforced by the September crisis, rests on three clear vulnerabilities:

First, Nepal’s growth is fundamentally jobless and exclusionary. The sharp disagreement between the World Bank’s pessimistic 2.1% growth forecast and the NRB’s optimism highlights deep uncertainty. But the more critical point is that even the best-case scenario fails to address the 22.7% youth unemployment rate—the very grievance that fueled the uprising. The crisis was a violent referendum on an economic model that offers no future for its youth. Graduating with this model intact is a recipe for renewed instability.

Second, graduation would strip away vital support at the moment of greatest need. The loss of preferential trade access and, critically, low-cost concessional financing would be a devastating blow. Nepal is now facing a multi-billion-dollar reconstruction bill from the September damages while simultaneously needing to fund a costly energy transition. Removing its access to affordable financing just as these massive bills come due would be fiscally crippling and strategically self-defeating.

Finally, the crisis proved the economy lacks the resilience for such a shock. While steady private sector credit (7.3%) and high foreign reserves provide a buffer, the underlying structure is brittle. With low domestic savings (6.2% of GDP) and an economy still heavily dependent on remittances, Nepal is simply not prepared to stand on its own without the structural supports that LDC status provides.

The interim government's most urgent long-term policy priority must be to formally request a deferral of graduation. This is not an admission of failure but an act of responsible economic management informed by the hard lessons of September. This aligns with calls from Nepal's own private sector, which has begun lobbying for a deferral to allow time for stabilization after the crisis. It is a strategic move to ensure that graduation is a genuine milestone of sustainable progress, not just a hollow victory that risks plunging the country back into crisis.

Environment and Climate Change

News Brief

According to the Air Quality Life Index (AQLI), the lives of the Nepali people are being cut short by at least five years as air pollution emerges as a potential health risk. Experts claim that smog will worsen in the winter without proper emission control and burning bans. Currently, air pollution has surpassed malnutrition and tobacco use as Nepal’s top health risk, which demands immediate action from the government. 

Amidst worsening air pollution, Nepal witnessed one of its most intense post-monsoon disasters in early October, as record-breaking rainfall across Madhes, Koshi, and Bagmati Provinces triggered floods, landslides, and river overflows, with eight major rivers crossing danger levels. Jhapa, Sunsari, and Ilam recorded over 12,000 displaced, more than 50 killed (including 37 in Ilam), and thousands of homes submerged as rivers like Kankai, Mechi, and Koshi breached critical points, cutting off highways and hindering rescues. Despite extensive damage, coordinated efforts by the Nepal Army, Armed Police Force, and local volunteers saved hundreds, highlighting the urgency of climate-resilient infrastructure, stronger early warning, and improved inter-agency coordination.

Late October brought extreme weather to Nepal’s high-altitude and trans-Himalayan regions. In Humla, the Nyalu road was blocked by heavy snowfall, stranding tourists and isolating villages like Til, Halji, and Jang. Similar conditions in Gorkha, Khumbu, Mustang, and Manang disrupted daily life, tourism, and transport, forcing trekkers in the Manaslu and Sagarmatha regions to halt their journeys. The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology attributed the severe conditions to Westerly winds, a low-pressure system over the Arabian Sea, and Cyclone Montha from the Bay of Bengal. 

A recent study conducted by the International Centre for the Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), shows that the Dudh Koshi river basin and the Everest region which has been hit by five significant glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in a span of less than 50 years as a potential flashpoint for GLOFs. 

The Fourth National Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (NCDRR 2025) concluded at ICIMOD, reaffirming Nepal’s commitment to strengthen disaster resilience under the global theme “Fund Resilience, Not Disasters.” Organized by NDRRMA in collaboration with ICIMOD, DPNet Nepal, and international partners, the event gathered officials, experts, and community leaders nationwide. The conference emphasized the need for sustained investment in resilience to mitigate future disaster impacts.

Nepal intensifies preparations as the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP-30) approaches which is scheduled from November 10 to 21 at Belem, Brazil focusing on the themes of reducing fossil fuel consumption, conserving forests, oceans, and biodiversity, transforming agriculture and food systems, human development, and technology and capacity building. Nepal will be highlighting the outcomes from the Sagarmatha Sambaad, with a major focus on Himalayan conservation. 

News Analysis

‘Lessons from October: Climate Extremes and Nepal’s Unprepared Resilience’

The incidents that followed in October shed light into the major shortcomings of the Nepali authorities when it comes to disaster resilience and preventive actions. Adjacent to that, the events also reflected how climate extremes are intensifying and expanding regionally, for instance, the rainfall across Madhes, Koshi and Bagmati provinces which were once localized, are now unpredictable with its consequences spanning across plain lands such as Rautahat and high lands such as Illam and Panchthar. This pattern depicts the growing impact of climate change on Nepal’s hydrological systems, calling for integrated watershed and regional risk mapping. The loss of lives in Jhapa, thousands displaced in Sunsari depict how local preparedness, land-use planning, and enforcement of building codes were lacking. Many deaths occurred at night or in settlements near unstable slopes and floodplains, suggesting that early evacuation protocols and community awareness campaigns were either absent or ineffective. Strengthening local government capacity and community-based disaster education can directly reduce future fatalities. The joint efforts by the Nepal Army, Armed Police Force and local volunteers were extremely crucial in rescuing those stranded, despite poor road connectivity, blocked highways, limited helicopters and delayed interventions in rural areas. This further highlights the need for decentralized disaster logistics, stronger communication among agencies and local stockpiling of resume equipment in times of unforeseeable circumstances. The events in October also illustrated how natural disasters disrupt both economies and national level priorities affecting livelihood, transport and tourism with more than 1000 houses in Sunsari, 450 in Jhapa and dozens of settlements across Koshi province submerged, and nine major highways blocked, halting transport and trade. These events reaffirm the economic cost of inadequate climate adaptation and disaster-resilient infrastructure.

Gender, Social Inclusion & Human Rights

News Brief

The National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) has urged all sides, including protesters and the government, to exercise restraint and maintain peace during demonstrations. Citing the recent Gen-Z protests, it emphasized dialogue, patience, and adherence to the rule of law as essential for resolving public grievances and safeguarding human rights.

Eastern Nepal is witnessing a disturbing surge in cases of missing teenage girls, with several incidents reported in the districts of Morang and Sunsari. On October 7, 13-year-old Anshu Gautam from Letang Municipality-2, Morang, went missing after leaving home to play on a swing. Her decapitated body was discovered 18 days later in the Belbari–Chisang Community Forest. Authorities are conducting DNA and forensic tests to confirm her identity and determine the cause of death. 

A writ petition has been filed in the Supreme Court challenging the neutrality of the Commission for Investigation of Loss of Lives and Property during the Gen Z Protest. Advocate Bipin Dhakal alleges that the commission’s chairman, Gauri Bahadur Karki, and members Bigyan Raj Sharma and Bishweshwor Prasad Bhandari were not impartial in handling issues related to the protest, raising concerns about accountability and fair investigation. The Supreme Court has acknowledged receipt of the petition and is currently reviewing it for further action.

News Analysis

Addressing Gaps in Adolescents Safety and Oversight

Eastern Nepal, particularly Morang and Sunsari districts, is witnessing a worrying rise in cases of missing teenage girls. On October 7, 13-year-old Anshu Gautam from Letang Municipality‑2, Morang, went missing while playing outside; her body was discovered 18 days later in Belbari–Chisang Community Forest. In the same month, three other girls aged 13–17 also disappeared in the region, one later found dead while two remain missing. Authorities have launched investigations into all cases, and police suspect that social media platforms may have been used to facilitate contact between the girls and unknown individuals, though the exact circumstances remain under investigation. These incidents have created alarm in local communities and drawn attention to the urgent need for stronger mechanisms to protect adolescents, particularly girls.

Beyond the immediate tragedies, these cases highlight deeper social and structural vulnerabilities. Delays in locating missing children and limited coordination between families, schools, and authorities reveal gaps in both institutional and community-level protection. They also underscore the crucial role of families in safeguarding adolescents: active parental supervision, open communication within households, and awareness of potential risks are essential to reducing vulnerability. In the current context, attention to digital safety protocols—such as guiding adolescents on responsible social media use, monitoring interactions with unknown individuals, and raising awareness about online manipulation—has become increasingly urgent. Schools, communities, and civil society organizations can play a key role in implementing these measures alongside traditional protective practices. Addressing this crisis requires a holistic and coordinated approach that combines rapid institutional response, strengthened community-based protection, and targeted awareness programs on both physical and digital safety. Without such integrated measures, existing legal and protective frameworks risk remaining largely symbolic, leaving adolescent girls exposed to harm and undermining efforts to uphold their rights and well-being.